Статистика и аналитика
Аналитика

Price forecast weekly from 17 to 21 of August 2020

17 августа 2020, 12:52

Grain market:

The USDA report showed a slight drop in gross wheat harvest by 0.43% to 766 million tons, and an increase in the corn crop by 0.67% to 1171 million tons. Markets were waiting for slightly better figures for wheat, as apart from the failed Europe, the rest of the regions were doing quite well.

After a severe flood due to incessant rains China will be forced to increase food imports, as part of the crops suffered from river flooding.

Comrade Xi addressed the nation with a message if not to save, then to be prudent about food. This means at least a reduction in portion sizes in Chinese restaurants. There is no hunger problem, but the losses due to the flooding force the CPC to give recommendations to the citizens, which in China’s conditions is tantamount to an order that cannot be ignored.

The Egyptian tender ended in deals with suppliers at $ 206 plus $ 15 freight, $ 4 below what we saw two weeks earlier. This fact will restrain the growth of prices on the exchange.

By reading our predictions, you could have made money in the gold market by taking a move up from 1750 to 1944.

Energy market:

Turkey goes well against Greece for the discovered oil and gas deposits off the small island of Castelrosso in the Mediterranean Sea. The air is peaceful, but the ships of the countries are within arm’s reach.

It seems that oil and gas are cheap now, but what will happen tomorrow? Resources are a reason for war. Nobody can stop Erdogan yet. It is likely that the Turkish lira, which has resumed its fall, will do this.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the conclusion of a peace agreement with the United Arab Emirates. This is a step towards normalizing the situation in the main oil producing region. It will reduce tensions, at least for a few years, which will give the green light for positive development.

Trump, as a mediator, has done well here. The rest have to envy, realizing that there will be less and less another problem for the flow of cheap oil to Europe.

Russia now and in the future can no longer leave the OPEC+ table. Arab countries have embarked on a course of creation. In connection with the fall in oil prices, everyone began to carefully count their money and be friends with each other.

USD/RUB:

The ruble stands still. While the attention of speculators is riveted to the Turkish lira, which is falling due to the exorbitant ambitions of the country’s leadership. It is possible that the ruble will do the same, but a little later.

At current oil prices, even despite the losses from the quarantine in the spring, the budget will be able to patch the holes. Pessimistic forecast: the budget deficit will reach 5 trillion rubles by the end of the year. Optimistic 1 trillion. The truth is somewhere in between.

It is impossible not to mention the events in Belarus. If Russia send its troops into a neighboring state, then a full-scale political, and with it an economic crisis, will begin, from which Russia will not be able to get out of it in its current form. If Russia becomes an intermediary between the current government and the protesters, then this is a more positive scenario.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Despite the attractiveness of the technical picture for buying, it is worth being careful and considering the risks carefully. For three weeks in a row, sellers are increasing pressure. The possibility of going down to 450.0 cannot be discounted.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. There is nothing left here but to guard support at 490.0. If the market stays above it, then there is a good prerequisite for an upward movement.

Falling scenario: if a red candle appears on the daily interval with a close below 500.0, it is worth considering the possibility of entering a short on the 1H intervals as the bulls ended Friday uncertainly.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 487.0. Target: 600.0. Those who are in the position from 492.0, move the stop to 487.0. Target: 600.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 489.0. Resistance — 516.4.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Speculators’ money leaves the market. The situation is very uncertain. On the one hand, the rise in prices with a record harvest will look ridiculous, on the other hand, we also have nowhere to fall. Note that this market is not comfortable for trading at the moment.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. Despite the growth at the end of last week, doubts remain about the ability of prices to break above 340.0. We will buy only if the market falls to 300.0.

Falling scenario: it is possible that when 337.0 is approached, an option for sale will appear. The current short entry levels are not attractive.

Recommendation:

Purchase: when approaching 300.0. Stop: 287.0. Target: 350.0.

Sale: not yet.

Support — 314.6. Resistance — 337.2.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. Reports that China will buy US soybeans in the fourth quarter propelled the market higher. Just fine situation for buyers. It is worth keeping longs here.

Falling scenario: I must say that we got out of the shorts on time. The market turned up. We do not sell.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 863.0, move the stop to 866.0. Target: 950.0. (1030.0).

Sale: no.

Support — 879.2. Resistance — 905.4.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 30. Almost no doubt that we are heading for 14.00. If the growth is intense, then perhaps we will not rush to take profit.

Falling scenario: our opinion has not changed, we will think about shorts when prices approach 14.00. If the growth is fast and unidirectional, then the short from 14.00 will be considered premature.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 12.11, move the stop to 11.97. Target: 14.00 (16.80).

Sale: no.

Support — 12.39. Resistance — 14.01.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 18. The coffee market stands still, but the chances of continued growth, in terms of technology, are good. We keep longs, add from 104.0.

Falling scenario: the probability of a move to 104.0 exists, but it is better to work it out on 1H intervals. There are no selling options for long-term trading.

Recommendation:

Purchase: on touch 104.0. Stop: 102.0. Target: 146.0. Those who are in the position from 110.0, move the stop to 102.0. Target: 146.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 109.60. Resistance — 127.40.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

There is a slight increase in interest on the part of speculators to buy; at the same time, some of the sellers left the market. This behavior gives the market a chance for growth. Note that oil is extremely stable.

Growth scenario: August futures, the expiration date is August 31. The support has formed at 44.90 from which one can buy. Bulls can surprise and push the market towards 53.60.

Falling scenario: if prices fall below 44.00, the market will go down. However, in order for this movement to take place, some fundamental event is needed.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 44.70. Target: 53.60.

Sale: when a daily red candle appears with a close below 44.00. Stop: 45.60. Target: 32.10.

Support — 44.24. Resistance — 46.18.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental: the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States fell by 4 units to 172 units.

US commercial oil reserves fell by -4.512 to 514.084 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by -0.722 to 247.084 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell -2.322 to 177.655 million barrels. Stocks at the Cushing storage facility increased by 1.336 to 53.289 million barrels.

Oil production fell by -0.3 to 10.7 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell by -0.389 to 5.621 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose by 0.324 to 3.143 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -0.713 to 2.478 million barrels per day. Oil refining rose 1.4 percent to 81 percent.

Gasoline demand rose 0.266 to 8.883 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose 0.3 to 9.6 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose 0.366 to 1.023 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.024 to 0.794 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose by 0.162 to 3.862 million barrels. Distillate production fell by -0.12 to 4.789 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.017 to 0.148 million barrels. Distillate exports rose 0.294 to 1.407 million barrels per day.

The demand for oil products rose by 1.457 to 19.369 million barrels. Distillate production rose 0.771 to 21.955 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.052 to 2.302 million barrels. Gasoline exports fell by -0.597 to 4.662 million barrels per day.

Propane demand rose 0.333 to 1.119 million barrels. Propane production fell by -0.01 to 2.323 million barrels. Propane imports fell by -0.036 to 0.084 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.424 to 0.913 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Sellers have a bite size advantage. In fact, nothing happens in the market. The parties look for themselves in small deals. There is a feeling that there is someone big acting against the group of sellers who keeps the market at current levels.

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 22. During the past week, sellers have not shown anything special, which means there is a chance for growth. So far we are confidently holding above 40.00, what may attract buyers.

Falling scenario: sellers lost initiative after failing to break below 40.00. Now you should be patient and wait for another attempt from the bears to go down.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 40.80. Target: 49.70.

Sale: when the candle closes below 40.50. Stop: 42.80. Target: 30.00. Anyone in the position from 42.00, move the stop to 42.80. Target: 30.00.

Support — 35.18. Resistance — 45.04.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 10. The market continues to stand below 400.0. At the same time, before us is not a perfect, but still a “diamond”, which is a reversal pattern. The market has a chance of going down. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: for sellers nothing bad happened in the market during the week. We keep the shorts. Those who have not entered can enter now.

Recommendation:

Purchase: think after rising above 400.0.

Sale: now. Stop: 387.0. Target: 300.0. If you are in position, keep your stop at 387.0. Target: 300.0.

Support — 329.00. Resistance — 431.00.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: September futures, an expiration date is August 27. We continue to accelerate amid heat waves in Europe and the United States. In addition, transit risks have grown for Europe due to the events in Belarus. It is unlikely that something negative will happen. But who knows how it will turn out, hence the nervousness. We keep longs.

Falling scenario: our opinion has not changed yet, we will sell by approaching 2.730, not earlier. The market has gained momentum and should not be hindered.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 1.850, move the stop to 1.930. Target: 2.730 (3.500?).

Sale: not yet.

Support — 2.080. Resistance — 2.730.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: we got a sharp drop, not in 1965, but in 1865. Then, logically, there should be another blow down to 1780. We will wait for it in order to buy again.

Falling scenario: a possible move from 1965 to 1780 looks attractive. It makes sense to go on short while the market is under 1950.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no. Took the move from 1750 to 1944.

Sale: now. Stop: 1970. Target: 1780.

Support — 1865. Resistance — 2087.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: the dollar takes it easy and doesn’t strengthen its positions. If prices consolidate above 1.1850, then we can expect an assault on 1.2000. In case of taking 1.2000, we can count on a move to 1.2500. We will take this scenario into account.

Falling scenario: level 1.1850 is a key for the next week. If the bulls raise the price above it, then we will go to 1.2000. There will be a struggle, but it is not clear how it will end.

Recommendations:

Purchase: if the daily candle closes above 1.1850. Stop: 1.1790. Target: 1.2000 (1.2500).

Sale: think when approaching 1.2000. Anyone in the position from 1.1780, move the stop to 1.1870. Target: 1.1500.

Support — 1.1698. Resistance — 1.1907.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: there is a risk of Russian interference in the affairs of Belarus. The market will take this fact into account next week. Only if Moscow’s position is neutral will the national currency rate hover above 72.00 in standby mode.

Falling scenario: it will be difficult for the ruble to pass below the support at 72.00. If this happens, we will face a strong fight at 71.00. At the end of the year, a budget deficit is envisaged, even at current oil prices. Therefore, it is difficult to seriously consider the strengthening of the ruble.

Purchase: think when approaching 71.00. Anyone in the position from 73.10, keep the stop at 72.40. Target: 78.70.

Sale: no.

Support — 72.18. Resistance — 74.65.

RTSI

Growth scenario: the market chose the path to 1450, apparently due to the fact that the Moscow Exchange banned opening shorts at Aeroflot. And there’s a grain of joke in every joke, the company’s shares rose after the release of this information.

All the optimism of the Russian market now rests on the optimism of overseas stock exchanges. As long as dollars remain cheap, everything will be fine. But since US interest rate futures have looked up, we shouldn’t count on an endless holiday.

A move on the RTS index to 1450 is possible. From there we will fall.

Falling scenario: by the end of the first six months of 2020, ALROSA shareholders will not receive dividends. The reason is: negative free cash flow of the company. It’s a pity, but there will be a lot of such information. Pessimism in autumn is likely to cover the Russian market. From 1450 it is obligatory to sell.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 1286, move the stop to 1278. The target is 1450.

Sell: on touch 1450. Stop: 1520. Target: 1000.

Support — 1222. Resistance — 1457.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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