Статистика и аналитика
Аналитика

Price forecast weekly from 31 of August to 4 of September 2020

31 августа 2020, 13:13

Grain market:

Wheat prices in the Black Sea region went up. Exporters raise their bid prices because of the constant demand for food from Egypt and Turkey.

it can be said that that FOB prices for Russian wheat have consolidated above $ 210 per ton. However, the volume of the harvest is such that while there are doubts that demand will remain at a constantly high level, since it can be satisfied without problems. However, France’s failure this year opens a window of opportunity for the Black Sea region countries to export wheat in the amount of 15 million tons.

In the meantime Russian wheat quality analysis shows a drop and the share of 5th grade wheat is bigger compared to last year.

Energy market:

The American hurricane story is over before it has begun. Everyone was a little afraid, mainly in the media, and forgot. Prices remained around $ 45 per barrel.

In the near future, the market will highlight the expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s comments on September 16. Also, the unemployment rate will be followed closely by the market, trying to see the economic recovery and finally remove from the radar the likelihood of negative interest rates.

In other words, before the presidential elections, which are scheduled for November 3rd, the Fed will not shake the boat and will issue a neutral comment.

It is important for the oil market to see a recovery in the US labor market. If it is not there, then prices will roll back to the area of $ 35.00 per barrel. We have been waiting for correction a long time.

USD/RUB:

The lack of a sharp reaction from Western countries to the poisoning of Navalny and the events in Belarus contributed to the correction of the ruble at the end of last week.

The potential of the national currency strengthening is extremely limited. If it’s confirmed that the special units of the Russian Federation are already on the territory of Belarus, Washington can take it’s magic sanction wand in the coming days.

From the economic point of view, Belarus is a subsidized territory for the Kremlin. And it will remain so for a very long time. Therefore, the accession, merger, takeover of Minsk will have a negative impact on the national currency even without sanctions.

Note that the dollar has not yet been able to strengthen more, which is evident from the quotes of gold and the euro/dollar pair. This helped the ruble to adjust by 2 rubles on Thursday and Friday after reaching 76.00 against the US dollar.

By reading our predictions, you could have made a profit in the natural gas market by climbing from $ 1.85 to $ 2.73 per million British thermal units.

By reading our predictions, you could have made money in the corn market by moving up from 320.0 to 340.0 cents per bushel.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

The number of buyers is small. On the other hand, the exodus of sellers continues against the background of rising prices. The speculators who bet on the fall clearly suffered big losses, which in the future may lead to a strong rollback from the next resistance level, since it is unlikely that experienced traders ran out of money after one unsuccessful transaction. Sellers will wait in the wings and enter the market again with slightly larger volumes than in recent weeks.

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 14. The market has drawn a new high on Friday, which tells us that we are ready to move towards 600.0. for a good entry, a rollback to the 530.0 area wouldn’t go amiss.

Falling scenario: we will refrain from sales until prices rise to 600.0. A possible pullback to 530.0 from the current levels is best done on 1H intervals.

Recommendation:

Purchase: on a rollback to 530.0. Stop: 510.0. Target: 600.0. Those who are in positions between 492.0 and 499.0, move the stop to 510.0. Target: 600.0. You can close 20% of the position with a profit.

Sale: think when approaching 600.0.

Support — 526.4. Resistance — 556.0.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

Sellers keep leaving the market. In two weeks, speculative positions fell by 115 thousand contracts. As prices rise, more and more contracts are closed by stop-loss, which stimulates the rise.

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 14. Prices are close to target levels. Here you can take profits. This will be followed by a rollback to 350.0, after which the upward movement will continue. This is the plan.

Falling scenario: while prices are below 360.0, you can sell on 1H intervals with a target at 350.0. We do not recommend enter the short positions on the 1D timeframe.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 351.0. Stop: 338.0. Target: 387.0. All with a profit.

Sale: no.

Support — 346.2. Resistance — 361.6.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: November futures, the expiration date is November 13. We see a clear illustration of the renewed economic dialogue between the United States and China. Prices are in the profit-taking zone. We are waiting for touching 960.0, after which, presumably, a rollback will begin.

Falling scenario: by touching 960.0, a short to 920.0 is possible, after which the growth will continue.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 863.0, move the stop to 910.0. Target: 960.0. (1040.0). You can close 20% of the position with a profit at current prices.

Sale: by touching 960.0 Stop: 973.0. Target: 920.0.

Support — 913.4. Resistance — 961.6.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 30. You can buy here. Prices are at the lower border of the growing channel. The target is the same — 14.00.

Falling scenario: structurally the upward impulse is complete. A fall to the 10.50 area is possible, which we suggest to work out.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 11.97. Target: 14.00. Whoever is in the position from 12.11, keep the stop at 11.97. Target: 14.00 (16.80).

Sale: now. Stop: 13.10. Target: 10.50.

Support — 12.39. Resistance — 14.01.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, the expiration date is September 18. If we see growth above 128.0, we can build up long positions. While the move from 120.0 to 105.0 remains technically possible. Therefore, we hold longs, and open new ones only with a deep correction.

Falling scenario: you can make another attempt to sell. The risk in points is minimal, the profit/risk ratio is high.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 105.0. Stop: 102.0. Target: 146.0. Those who are in the position from 110.0, move the stop to 124.0. Target: 146.0. It can be added in case of price growth above 128.0.

Sale: now. Stop: 128.0. Target: 105.0.

Support — 109.60. Resistance — 127.40 (146.70).

Brent. ICE

Based on the open interest, we see that small-volume bets are being made both on growth and fall. This is due to the uncertainty in the market. Until there is a price spurt to one side, speculators will behave calmly.

Growth scenario: September futures, the expiration date is September 30. For the rise up, we need positive data from the US labor market. Information will come out only on Friday. Whether the market will presume that the news will be positive and push prices up is a big question.

Falling scenario: a fall in prices below 44.00 can be perceived as a signal to enter the sale. We see the «wedge» in front of us. A breakdown of support will cause a sharp drop in prices. A rise above 48.00 would be an unpleasant surprise for sellers in the current situation.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: by touching 44.00. Stop: 45.60. Target: 32.10.

Support — 44.24. Resistance — 46.18.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental: the number of oil drilling rigs in the US dropped by 3 units to 180 units.

US commercial oil reserves fell -4.689 to 507.763 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by -4.583 to 239.179 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 1.388 to 179.195 million barrels. Stocks at Cushing’s storage dropped by -0.279 to 52.403 million barrels.

Oil production increased by 0.1 to 10.8 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose by 0.186 to 5.916 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose by 1.226 to 3.363 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -1.04 to 2.553 million barrels per day. Refining rose by 1.1 to 82 percent.

Gasoline demand rose by 0.531 to 9.161 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose 0.118 to 9.518 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose by 538.443 to 539 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports fell by -0.189 to 0.62 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose 0.705 to 3.958 million barrels. Distillate production rose 0.38 to 5.122 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.081 to 0.129 million barrels. Distillate exports fell by -0.421 to 1.094 million barrels per day.

The demand for petroleum products rose by 2.46 to 19.619 million barrels. Distillate production increased by 2.328 to 21.883 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.781 to 2.132 million barrels. Gasoline exports fell -1.134 to 4.519 million barrels per day.

Propane demand rose by 0.109 to 1.215 million barrels. Propane production rose 0.066 to 2.27 million barrels. Propane imports increased by 0.046 to 0.115 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.222 to 0.95 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Small amounts of money from both bulls and bears enter the market. Uncertainty persists. If the joy of the recovery in the US labor market next week is excessive, then we can see the stocks growth.

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 22. We can state that August passed easy. It is psychologically difficult to buy, although the option to move to 50.00 should be considered after a price increase above 45.00. Entering a long from the current levels is considered as a premature action.

Falling scenario: continue to wait until the market closes below 41.00, after which we will sell. Below this level, there is clearly a large number of buyer’s stop orders, which will lead to a strong move down.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Anyone in the position from 42.40, keep the stop at 41.30. Target: 49.70.

Sale: when the candle closes below 41.00. Stop: 42.70. Target: 30.00.

Support — 41.38. Resistance — 45.04.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, the expiration date is September 10. The market found support around 350.0. A move below will lead to 325.0 drop. Despite the fact that prices are at overstated levels, we will buy, since the technical picture is favorable for a long.

Falling scenario: you have to stand in shorts and wait. Fuel demand will fall, the market should take this into account. A danger of rising prices on the oil market is still here, but it is not yet obvious.

Recommendation:

Buy: think when approaching 330.0. Or now. Stop: 348.0. Target: 430.0.

Sale: no. Whoever is in positions between 370.0 and 375.0, keep the stop at 382.0. Target: 300.0.

Support — 350.75. Resistance — 395.25.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 28. Reached the target at 2.73. Who closed the profit — our congratulations! Now we need a correction so that we go to the next target at 3.536 technically competent.

Falling scenario: short position is possible here. Whoever entered at 2.730 on Friday is in an excellent position. We will count on a fall in prices to 2.100, after which the growth can be continued.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 2.130. Stop: 2.060. Target: 3.536. All with a profit.

Sale: now. Stop: 2.760. Target: 2.130. Anyone in the position from 2.730, move the stop to 2.760. Target: 2.130.

Support — 2.102. Resistance — 2.730.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: the market closed positively on Friday and threatened to rise above 2000. If prices return above this level, it may lead to an attempt to set a new maximum. If prices rise above Thursday’s high by $ 2, you can buy.

Falling scenario: the market did not close below 1900, which kept us from selling. We leave this condition for entering the short and wait.

Recommendations:

Purchase: if prices rise above Thursday’s high by $ 2. Stop: 1942. Target: 2268.

Sell: after the daily candle closes below 1900. Stop: 1944. Target: 1780.

Support — 1865. Resistance — 2087.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: we cannot just recommend to buy from current levels. Confirmation is needed. We will buy if prices rise above 1.2000 with targets at 1.2500.

Falling scenario: our stop is at 1.1928. We will stand. Those who wish can join us. Friday closed alarmingly for sellers as comments from US bankers about the speed of economic recovery were slightly pessimistic.

Recommendations:

Purchase: after rising above 1.2000. Stop: 1.1870. Target: 1.2500.

Sale: now. Stop: 1.1928. Target: 1.1300. Who entered from 1.1950 keep the stop at 1.1928. Target: 1.1300.

Support — 1.1671. Resistance — 1.1972.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: even if we correct to 73.00, the market will still remain in the growing price channel, which means that we will not see the flow of sellers for the pair yet. Political risks are high at this stage, when we approach 73.00 we will buy.

Falling scenario: if the ruble were in the same weight category as the euro, then one could talk about the dollar’s weakness, but, unfortunately, this is not the case. We are much more interested in oil prices, budget deficits and demand for Russian debt securities. Last week there was demand for FLBs, which supported the ruble. Whether this demand will be the case with the merger with Belarus is a big question.

Purchase: on a rollback to 73.00. Stop: 72.40. Anyone in the position from 73.10, keep the stop at 72.40. Target: 78.70 (85.00).

Sale: thinking after falling below 73.00.

Support — 72.18. Resistance — 78.59.

RTSI

Growth scenario: the index cannot lift its head despite the strengthening of the ruble. So far we have found support at 1250, but how long it will last in the absence of buyers is a big question. As long as we are above 1200 we continue to hope for the best.

Sberbank began to fall, which is bad. The bank can drag the rest of the market in it’s wake.

Falling scenario: the external background is extremely positive, but this doesn’t help the Russian stock market. Americans are growing, we are standing still. We continue to recommend selling after the index fell below 1230.

Recommendations:

Purchase: now. Stop: 1248. Target: 1457.

Sale: by touching 1228. Stop: 1268. Target: 1000.

Support — 1222. Resistance — 1342.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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